Solar Cycle

solar cycle, period of about 11 years in which fluctuations in the number and size of sunspots and solar prominences are repeated. Sunspot groups have a magnetic field with a north and a south pole, and, in each 11-year rise and fall, the same polarity leads in a given hemisphere while the opposite polarity leads in the other. In each rise and fall, the latitude of sunspot eruption starts around 30° and drifts to the equator, but the magnetic fields of the follower spots (sunspots usually come in pairs, called leader and follower) drift poleward and reverse the polar field. In the next 11-year period, the magnetic polarities are reversed but follow the same pattern. Therefore, the magnetic period is 22 years.

Although sunspots were known as early as 1600, no one noticed that their number changed with time until the German amateur astronomer Samuel Heinrich Schwabe announced the 11-year cycle in 1843. Swiss astronomer Rudolf Wolf studied historical sunspot records and proposed the scheme still used for numbering solar cycles, with solar cycle 1 beginning in 1755, the earliest year for which he found reliable sunspot numbers. The 22-year magnetic cycle was discovered in 1925 by the American astronomer George Ellery Hale.

In 1894 the English astronomer E. Walter Maunder pointed out that very few sunspots were observed between 1645 and 1715, a period now known as the Maunder minimum. This period coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age (c. 1300–1850) in the Northern Hemisphere, when the River Thames in England froze over during winter, Viking settlers abandoned Greenland, and Norwegian farmers demanded that the Danish king recompense them for lands occupied by advancing glaciers. The event was confirmed by the American astronomer J.A. Eddy, using carbon isotope ratios in tree rings. During this time the 11-year cycle continued but with a much-reduced amplitude. The data suggest that other such events occurred even earlier in the previous millennium. The late 18th and early 19th centuries also had a brief period of decreased sunspot activity, the Dalton minimum, that also coincided with a period that was slightly cooler than normal. The physical mechanism that explains how changes in solar activity affect Earth’s climate is unknown, and these episodes, however suggestive, do not prove that lower sunspot numbers produce cooling.

Solar cycle 25 began in 2019 and will reach maximum in 2025, but that maximum is predicted to be weak, like that of solar cycle 24, which had only half the number of sunspots seen in solar cycle 23. This decrease in the number of sunspots has led some solar physicists to conclude that the Sun may be in a period of inactivity like the Dalton minimum.